Mass-Cycle Median Reversal System

Family: hybrid · Regime: mixed · Complexity: high · Asset classes: FX, Equities, Crypto · Timeframes: M15, H1

Thesis

Trend reversals are preceded by a 'volatility bulge' (range expansion/contraction) that can be identified by the Mass Index. By timing the subsequent cyclical momentum shift with a high-speed MACD and filtering for price stability via Median Absolute Error, we can enter reversals with high precision. The edge exists because markets tend to overextend (volatility bulge) before mean-reverting to a new cyclical path.

Components

• Mass Index (MI) (regime) — Serves as the regime filter to identify 'reversal bulges' where range expansion suggests an imminent trend change.
• Schaff Trend Cycle (STC) (direction) — Confirms the direction of the new cyclical trend after the Mass Index signals a potential reversal.
• Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) - Custom Periods (entry) — Acts as the high-sensitivity trigger for entry, capturing the exact moment momentum shifts in the direction indicated by STC.
• Relative Strength Quality Index (RSX) (exit) — Provides a noise-free momentum exit, closing positions when the Jurik-smoothed oscillator reaches overbought/oversold extremes.
• Grid Bot [Grid range plugin] Two Moving Avarages [psyll] (risk) — Calculates dynamic volatility-based support/resistance levels for hard stop-losses and position sizing.
• Median Absolute Error (volatility_filter) — Filters out periods of high 'prediction error' or market noise where price is deviating erratically from its internal structure.

Known failure conditions

• Mass Index fails to 'bulge' during significant price turns, rendering the regime filter useless.
• Ultra-fast MACD (2,3,2) generates more than 5 whipsaws in a single STC cycle.
• Price remains pinned at Grid High/Low boundaries without triggering RSX exits during high-volatility regimes.

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