ML-Squeeze MESA Cycle Hybrid
Family: hybrid · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: FX, Equities, Crypto · Timeframes: 1H, 4H, 1D
Thesis
Market breakouts are most reliable when volatility expansion (Squeeze Break) coincides with an AI-confirmed trend (ML SuperTrend) and a cyclical pullback (MESA Stochastic). The edge lies in the filtering of 'fake' breakouts by using Ehlers' spectral analysis to ensure the entry occurs at a cycle extreme rather than chasing price.
Components
- Squeeze Break (John Carter) (regime) — Filters for periods of volatility expansion; ensures the strategy only enters when the 'squeeze' has released and momentum is directional.
- ML SuperTrend (Ultimate) - Auto-Optimized AI with LSTM (direction) — Provides the macro-trend bias using an LSTM-optimized volatility floor to prevent trading against the primary AI-detected momentum.
- Ehlers MESA Stochastic (MSTOCH) (entry) — Filters out spectral noise using a Roofing Filter to time entries at the precise end of a counter-trend cycle.
- Pivot Point S&R with GMT Correction (exit) — Provides objective, non-lagging price levels for profit taking based on daily market structure.
- alert-domain-invalid-input-v6-39 (risk) — Used as a 'system-ready' diagnostic gate; if the environment returns y=1, risk parameters are active.
Known failure conditions
- The ML SuperTrend enters a 'ping-pong' state where the LSTM weights fail to converge on a stable volatility factor.
- Price action becomes purely erratic (noise) such that the Ehlers Highpass filter removes all tradable signal.
- Pivot levels are consistently ignored by price during high-impact news events (e.g., NFP, CPI).
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