NVI-Pitchfork Stealth Confluence

Family: hybrid · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: Equities, Forex, Indices · Timeframes: H1, H4, D1

Thesis

Institutional accumulation typically occurs during periods of low retail interest, manifesting as positive price movement on declining volume (NVI). By entering when this 'stealth' trend aligns with structural pitchfork geometry and high technical confluence (IAE), we enter early in institutional trends before retail momentum (MACD) peaks. Volatility filtering (ATR HA) ensures we avoid entering at the climax of moves.

Components

• Negative Volume Index (NVI) / Positive Volume Index (PVI) (regime) — Establishes the 'Smart Money' regime. If NVI is above its moving average, price movement on low-volume days is positive, suggesting institutional accumulation rather than retail hype.
• Auto Pitchfork (direction) — Defines the structural corridor. We only trade in the direction of the pitchfork orientation and use the Median Line as a directional filter.
• IAE — Technical Confluence Score (entry) — Acts as the high-conviction trigger by aggregating 10 distinct technical layers to ensure trade entry occurs only at points of maximum confluence.
• MACD Classic (3-Line) (exit) — Identifies momentum exhaustion. The exit is triggered when the MACD signal line crosses back through the MACD line, indicating the 'meat' of the move is over.
• Volume Profile + Pivot Levels [ChartPrime] (risk) — Provides structural stop-loss levels based on the Point of Control (POC) or identified volume nodes, ensuring risk is tucked behind high-liquidity zones.
• ATR Heiken Ashi (volatility_filter) — Used as a volatility gate to prevent entering during 'blown-out' high-volatility climaxes. Trade entry is only permitted when volatility is within a stable range.

Known failure conditions

• NVI stays flat or trends opposite to price for >20 bars, suggesting volume data is decoupled from price action.
• Auto Pitchfork redraws pivots more than 3 times within a 50-bar window, indicating a non-trending/choppy market.
• IAE Confluence Score fails to exceed 60 for more than 100 bars during a price trend.

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