PiPi-XAU Infrastructure Breakout Strategy

Family: breakout · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: Gold (XAU/USD), Major Forex Pairs · Timeframes: H1, H4

Thesis

The strategy assumes that gold prices follow a structured 'Price Infrastructure' where breakouts from established Fibonacci levels, when validated by normalized trend volatility (TVF) and freed from news-driven noise, indicate the start of a high-probability impulsive wave. The edge lies in filtering macro-structure noise via PiPi before applying momentum triggers.

Components

• PiPi (Price Infrastructure & Position Interface) (regime) — Establishes the macro-regime by defining if the price is within a 'Level Range' (value area) or trending between Fibonacci containers.
• XAU Trend Volatility Filter (XAU_TVF) (direction) — Confirms directional bias by ensuring trend strength (TrendScore) is positive/negative and volatility pressure (VolPressure) is sufficient to move price.
• Keltner Channels (entry) — Triggers entries on volatility breakouts from the Keltner bands, specifically targeting 'squeeze' releases.
• Restu Kaioh Scalping Indicator (exit) — Provides timing for exits based on momentum exhaustion (Stochastic extremes) suited for gold's mean-reverting tendencies.
• Gain Loss Info (Visual Overlays) (risk) — Uses candle-by-candle point/percent movement to calibrate dynamic stop-loss levels based on market realization.
• AlgoMaster News Indicator (NNFX-style) (volatility_filter) — Filters out entries during high-impact news events to avoid slippage and unpredictable volatility spikes.

Known failure conditions

• Price spends >70% of time oscillating within the PiPi 'Level Range', causing Keltner whip-saws.
• TrendScore and VolPressure consistently contradict current price action due to high lag.
• Fundamental news impact overrides technical levels for sustained periods (>48 hours).

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