Qualitative String-Regime Pullback Alpha

Family: pullback · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: FX, Equities, Crypto · Timeframes: H1, H4

Thesis

Markets that exhibit high structural complexity (defined by the 'String Test' score) tend to sustain momentum better than simple environments. In these regimes, mean-reversion touches of Bollinger Bands against the primary QQE momentum trend represent high-probability entry points for trend continuation. The edge is derived from filtering out low-complexity 'noise' and using a trend-following exit that allows for tail-risk capture.

Components

• For in string test fixture (regime) — Acting as a complexity filter; higher scores represent environments with sufficient structural density to support momentum-reversion trades.
• QQE (Qualitative Quantitative Estimation) (direction) — Provides the primary bias. We only look for buy entries when smoothed RSI momentum is positive relative to its volatility-adjusted trailing band.
• Bollinger Bands (entry) — Used for 'buy-the-dip' entries within the QQE trend. A touch of the outer bands indicates a temporary volatility exhaustion.
• HiLo Activator (Gann Style) (exit) — Provides a dynamic trailing stop based on the high/low of the previous N periods, allowing the trade to run during trend extension.
• ATR SL Finder (risk) — Calculates the initial hard stop-loss based on current volatility to ensure the trade has room to breathe.
• Grid Utility (Rosasurfer Framework) (volatility_filter) — Ensures the market is in a 'tradeable' state by verifying that ATR-based volatility is at least 0.5x the calculated visual GridSize, avoiding stagnant price action.

Known failure conditions

• Regime score consistently remains below the threshold for >200 bars, indicating a lack of 'market structure' density.
• ATR drops below 25% of the Grid Utility size, signaling extreme compression.
• Successive losses exceeding 5 in a single regime state.

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