Regression-Momentum News-Filtered Pivot Strategy

Family: hybrid · Regime: trending · Complexity: medium · Asset classes: FX, Indices, Commodities · Timeframes: H1, H4

Thesis

Market trends are most reliable when a statistical 'line of best fit' (LINREG) aligns with active momentum (ASH) and structural triggers (Pivots/SuperTrend). By filtering out exogenous volatility shocks (News Indicator) and using trailing volatility exits (Donchian), the strategy seeks to capture the meat of the move while protecting capital from fundamental reversals.

Components

• Linear Regression (LINREG) (regime) — Establishes the primary trend regime by fitting a least-squares line to price data; filters out noise.
• Absolute Strength Histogram (ASH) (direction) — Confirms that price direction is supported by positive/negative momentum difference rather than low-volume drift.
• SuperTrend & Pivots (entry) — Acts as the execution trigger when SuperTrend flips direction while price maintains a specific relationship to daily pivot points.
• Donchian Channels (exit) — Provides a trailing exit mechanism based on volatility-adjusted price extremes (lowest-low/highest-high).
• AlgoMaster News Indicator (NNFX-style) (risk) — Manages exogenous risk by preventing entries during high-impact economic events that invalidate technical signals.

Known failure conditions

• Persistence of the LINREG slope in one direction while price remains trapped within the Donchian Mid-band for > 50 bars.
• High-impact news events consistently occurring within 2 bars of entry triggers, leading to 100% filter rate.
• Market regime shifts to high-frequency mean reversion where LINREG slope lags price turns.

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