Regressive SMC Asian Breakout Scalper

Family: breakout · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: FX Majors, Crosses · Timeframes: M15, H1

Thesis

Market participants use the Asian session range as a liquidity benchmark. When the London session breaks this range in alignment with a statistically significant linear regression trend (Ghost Channel) and is confirmed by smoothed momentum (Alligator), a structural shift (CHoCH) identifies an institutional move that is likely to persist until momentum exhausts (MACD). High-impact news acts as a volatility disruptor that invalidates these technical structures.

Components

• Forex Asia Range Box Lite (regime) — Establishes the initial liquidity boundary; price escaping this range provides the volatility context for the day.
• Ghost Channels [mph1nance] (direction) — Provides the macro directional bias based on statistical regression fit and slope.
• TradeEase (entry) — Identifies structural shifts (CHoCH) and high-probability entry zones (Order Blocks) within the established trend.
• Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) (exit) — Captures momentum exhaustion for timely exits before structural reversals occur.
• AlgoMaster News Indicator (NNFX-style) (risk) — Prevents entry during high-volatility news events that invalidate technical structures.
• Bill Williams Alligator (confirmation) — Acts as a momentum filter to ensure the market is not in a sideways 'sleeping' phase.

Known failure conditions

• Asian Session range exceeds 40% of the 5-day ADR (volatility already exhausted).
• Ghost Channel R2 fit quality falls below 0.30 (no coherent trend).
• Continuous CHoCH signals in both directions within 10 bars (market chop).

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