Session Atlas Mean Reversion (SAMR)

Family: mean_reversion · Regime: ranging · Complexity: medium · Asset classes: FX Major Pairs, Indices (XAUUSD) · Timeframes: H1, M30

Thesis

Price moves during the high-liquidity New York session often overshoot 'fair value' due to institutional hedging and end-of-day rebalancing. These overextensions (measured by ATLS performance) create a high-probability mean-reversion opportunity during the lower-liquidity Asia open, as the aggressive buying/selling pressure subsides and price stabilizes. Stochastics and Bears Power identify the specific moment this pressure fades.

Components

• ATLS: Session Atlas (regime) — Defines the 'exhaustion' regime by identifying sessions with extreme percentage moves (>0.5%) that are likely to mean-revert during lower-liquidity gaps.
• FakeCandle (direction) — Provides the price action confirmation; ensures entry signals are based on smoothed NNFX-style price representations rather than raw noise.
• Stochastic Oscillator (entry) — Acts as the timing trigger, identifying oversold/overbought conditions at the end of high-performance sessions.
• Bears Power (exit) — Quantifies the exhaustion of selling pressure (for shorts) or the re-emergence of selling pressure (for long exits).
• ATR SL Finder (risk) — Provides volatility-adjusted stops and defines the risk unit for position sizing calculations.

Known failure conditions

• Multiple consecutive sessions with >1% performance without mean reversion (strong trending market).
• Market volatility drops so low that ATR SL is hit by spread noise.
• The 'FakeCandle' logic fails to filter whipsaws in sideways Asian sessions.

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