SGF-Murrey Polynomial Trend System

Family: trend_following · Regime: trending · Complexity: medium · Asset classes: FX, Equities, Indices · Timeframes: H1, H4

Thesis

Market trends exhibit significant noise that traditional moving averages fail to filter without excessive lag. By using the Savitzky-Golay Filter for noise reduction and Murrey Math for structural support/resistance, we can identify high-probability trend entries that are mathematically likely to persist until a change in candle sentiment (Heiken Ashi) occurs. The edge lies in the combination of polynomial smoothing to identify the 'real' trend and ADX to ensure institutional participation.

Components

• Relative Strength Index (Standard) (regime) — Acts as a regime filter to ensure the market is not already overextended (overbought/oversold) before entry, filtering out late-stage trend exhaustion.
• CCI Arrows (direction) — Identifies the specific moment of momentum shifting across the zero-line to provide a directional bias.
• ADX / Connectable [Azullian] (entry) — Provides the final entry trigger by confirming that trend strength is increasing (ADX rising) and direction (DI cross) is aligned.
• Heiken Ashi (Standard MT5) (exit) — Filters intra-trend noise during the trade; an exit is triggered when the HA candle color changes, indicating a potential trend reversal.
• Murrey Math Line X (risk) — Uses fractal price levels (1/8th intervals) to define logical support/resistance for stop-loss placement and volume-based position sizing.
• Savitzky-Golay Filter (SGF) (volatility_filter) — Filters micro-volatility and noise using polynomial regression to ensure price action is trending smoothly above/below the mean.

Known failure conditions

• Price oscillates frequently across the Murrey Math 4/8 (midline) without reaching outer octaves.
• RSI remains pinned above 70 or below 30 for extended periods while ADX signals entry (strong trend exhaustion).
• SGF slope remains flat while CCI produces multiple zero-crosses (choppy noise).

Explore the full interactive blueprint, parameter ranges and evidence on WOBR StrategyVerse, or generate this strategy as an MT4/MT5 Expert Advisor with QuantMogul AI Engine.