Shadow-Restu Intraday Mean Reversion

Family: hybrid · Regime: mixed · Complexity: medium · Asset classes: XAU/USD, EUR/USD, Major FX Pairs · Timeframes: M15, H1

Thesis

Market participants often overreact to short-term price extremes (Restu Kaioh) while respecting the broader hourly trend (H1 Shadow). By entering when selling pressure decelerates (Bears Power) within a structural trend, we capture mean-reversion moves back toward the hourly VWAP/High/Low (TimeBlocks).

Components

• H1 Candle as True Shadow on M15 (regime) — Establishes the higher-timeframe structural bias; entries are only taken in the direction of the previous H1 candle's close relative to its open.
• Bears Power (direction) — Filters for short-term exhaustion/momentum; requires the bears to be weakening (rising) for longs and strengthening (falling) for shorts.
• Restu Kaioh Scalping Indicator (entry) — Provides the discrete execution trigger based on oversold/overbought stochastic conditions tuned for scalping.
• MACD (exit) — Used to detect momentum exhaustion or trend reversal for trade liquidation via signal line crossovers.
• TimeBlocks (Multifunctional Period Separator) (risk) — Defines the volatility boundaries (High/Low) and VWAP balance used for hard stop placement and position sizing relative to range extensions.

Known failure conditions

• Strategy underperforms if the H1 'True Shadow' produces consistent whip-saws due to high-volatility news events.
• VWAP balance tracking fails if price remains pinned at range boundaries without mean reversion.

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