Sherif-ASH Mean Recovery System

Family: trend_following · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: Equities, FX, Commodities · Timeframes: H4, D1

Thesis

This strategy hypothesizes that price momentum (ASH) and trend strength (ADX) within a macro-boundary (Sherif Hilo) provide a higher probability entry when price recovers from a mean-reversion event (BB Mid cross). The edge relies on 'volatility expansion' following a consolidation within a larger trend.

Components

• Sherif Hilo (regime) — Acts as the primary trend filter (Regime) to ensure trades are only taken in the direction of the long-term structural extreme.
• Absolute Strength Histogram (ASH) (direction) — Confirms intraday momentum (Direction) to prevent entering against counter-trend price pressure.
• Bollinger Bands (entry) — The trigger (Entry). We wait for a pullback to the SMA (Mean) within a structural trend.
• Donchian Channels (exit) — Used for trailing exits based on break-of-structure (HH/LL).
• Darvas Boxes MetaTrader 5 (risk) — Provides objective price levels for stop-loss placement based on established consolidation boundaries.
• ADX / Connectable [Azullian] (volatility_filter) — Filters out low-volatility/directionless environments where Bollinger Mean Reversion fails.

Known failure conditions

• Extended periods of low-volatility 'drift' where price crawls along the Sherif Hilo line without hitting Darvas pivots.
• A regime shift where mean reversion to the SMA becomes a full reversal before ASH can react.

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