SML-MAPE Structural Momentum Hybrid

Family: hybrid · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: FX (Majors), Equities (Large Cap), Commodities (Gold/Oil) · Timeframes: H1, H4

Thesis

This strategy hypothesizes that macro trends identified by ZigZag structure are most efficiently entered during pullbacks to SML support/resistance zones, provided that momentum (MACD) and seller/buyer exhaustion (Bears Power) confirm a reversal, and the market is not in a state of extreme irrationality as measured by MAPE. The edge lies in filtering out 'noisy' signals by requiring multiple independent market dimensions to align.

Components

• ZigZag Color (Classic) (regime) — Defines the macro trend regime; entries are only permitted in the direction of the last established ZigZag leg.
• Bears Power (direction) — Filters for seller exhaustion; we look for increasing Bears Power (approaching zero) as a sign that sellers are losing control near support zones.
• SML — SUPPORT/RESISTANCE MATRIX (entry) — Identifies high-probability structural zones for entry execution within the larger ZigZag regime.
• HiLo Activator (Gann Style) (exit) — Provides a dynamic trailing exit that adapts to price movement, closing the trade if the Gann-style trend flips.
• Frankenstein Ultimate Pro - ATM Logic (risk) — Governs the trade execution timing via TEMA/LSMA crossover and sets the risk-defined stop loss using ATR-based volatility thresholds.
• MACD (confirmation) — Provides momentum confirmation; histogram direction must align with the intended trade direction.
• Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) (volatility_filter) — Acts as a volatility/irrationality filter; trades are blocked if MAPE is at historical extremes, suggesting an overextended market.

Known failure conditions

• ZigZag leg direction flips immediately after SML zone contact (regime failure).
• Price remains stuck in the SML zone while MACD momentum oscillates (choppy market failure).
• MAPE values spike significantly during a news event, making the ATR-based stop too wide for the RR 1.5 ratio to be viable.

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