Static-Bound Cyclical Momentum

Family: hybrid · Regime: ranging · Complexity: medium · Asset classes: Equities (specifically US30/DJI) · Timeframes: H1, H4

Thesis

In a market trading within a known structural 'fair value' zone (like the US30 in the 33k range), trend-following momentum breakouts (SilverTrend) are more likely to succeed when they align with the broader trend (EMA) and are closed as the short-term cycle (DSP) reaches exhaustion. The edge relies on the assumption that price will respect static structural levels as definitive risk boundaries while momentum dictates intraday movement.

Components

• Indicator Sample (Boilerplate) (regime) — Acts as a 'Data Readiness' regime filter, ensuring the chart has sufficient bar history for the DSP and EMA buffers to stabilize before signals are valid.
• Exponential Moving Average (EMA) (direction) — Provides the primary trend bias; entries are only taken in the direction of the EMA slope to avoid counter-trend traps.
• SilverTrend Sv2 (entry) — Identifies local volatility breakouts. The Kmax/SSP logic identifies when price momentum has shifted significantly relative to recent highs/lows.
• Ehlers Detrended Synthetic Price (DSP) (exit) — Used to identify cycle exhaustion. By extracting the dominant cycle, it signals an exit when the momentum 'wave' has peaked or crossed its zero-line.
• Probable High Low (risk) — Defines the structural boundaries of the trade. Since the levels are hardcoded (approx. 33k range), this serves as a 'zone of interest' and provides the fixed price levels for stop-loss calculation.

Known failure conditions

• If the asset (US30) enters a long-term regime shift far above or below the hardcoded 32889-33678 range, the risk module becomes obsolete.
• If the market exhibits high-frequency noise that exceeds the SilverTrend SSP lookback, resulting in constant whipsaws.

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