Statistical Drift & POC Reclaim Hybrid
Family: trend_following · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: FX, Equities, Crypto · Timeframes: M15, H1, H4
Thesis
Markets exhibit 'trend persistence' detectable through variance ratios (ADM), where price drift outpaces a random walk. By identifying this state and entering on a momentum pullback (Williams %R) that is subsequently validated by a volume POC reclaim (WaveTrend), we capitalize on the high-probability resumption of the statistical drift.
Components
- Multi Timeframe Moving Average Dashboard (regime) — Establishes the macro-regime by checking price location relative to a cluster of SMAs across M30, H4, and D1.
- iSpy Agent (direction) — Acts as the data bridge, broadcasting tick-level price action to the internal logic handler via EventChartCustom to minimize latency in execution.
- Williams %R (entry) — Provides the tactical entry trigger by identifying momentum reversals out of local oversold/overbought zones.
- Equity Line Projection (exit) — Calculates the mathematical target for take-profit based on account equity growth goals rather than static pips.
- Asset Drift Model (ADM) (risk) — Filters for trades only when the Variance Ratio > 1.1, ensuring the asset is in a trending (drifting) state rather than mean-reverting.
- ProfitRobots Dashboard Template (confirmation) — Visual confirmation of symbol-specific trend alignment across the broader market basket.
- WaveTrend v3 [WavesUnchained] (volatility_filter) — Filters out low-volatility noise; the high context score requirement ensures entries align with volume POC reclaims.
Known failure conditions
- ADM Variance Ratio (VR) consistently stays below 1.0, indicating a pure mean-reversion regime.
- High latency in EventChartCustom broadcasts leading to signal slippage > 5 pips.
- WaveTrend Alignment Score stays below 3.0 during strong price moves, indicating volume/structure decoupling.
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