Structural CSM-Momentum Breakout Strategy

Family: hybrid · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: Forex (Major Pairs) · Timeframes: H1, H4

Thesis

Exploitable edge exists when local price momentum (MOM) aligns with a global currency imbalance (CSM), confirmed by a structural breakout (Ichimoku), provided the price remains on the 'live' side of a dynamic volatility boundary (SuperTrend). This identifies high-velocity trend segments while filtering for mean-reversion noise.

Components

• EMA with Switch-Based Length Reassignment (regime) — Acts as the primary trend filter (Regime); identifies if the 'live' price state is above or below an ultra-fast dynamic baseline.
• Momentum (direction) — Provides the directional bias; requires price to be moving faster than it was 10 periods ago to justify a trade.
• Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (entry) — Determines specific entry timing by requiring price to break out of the Kumo (cloud) and Tenkan/Kijun to cross in alignment with the trend.
• MACD & OSMA Cloud Hybrid (exit) — Detects momentum exhaustion; the transition from 'Dark Green' (rising) to 'Spring Green' (falling) OsMA provides a sensitive exit trigger.
• SuperTrend & Pivots (risk) — SuperTrend provides the dynamic trailing stop-loss level, while Pivot Points define the hard invalidation levels for risk/reward calculations.
• Currency Strength Matrix (All) (confirmation) — Confirmation layer; ensures the individual pair movement is supported by broader currency-wide strength/weakness (Base vs. Quote).

Known failure conditions

• Currency Strength Matrix returns constant 0 due to logic placeholder (requires manual code repair).
• Extreme low-volatility environments where the ultra-fast EMA(2) produces whipsaws.
• SuperTrend 'Factor 3' being too wide for scalping timeframes, leading to poor R:R.

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