Synthetic Oracle Cycle Breakout

Family: hybrid · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: Forex, Equities, Crypto · Timeframes: 1H, 4H

Thesis

Price cycles exhibit higher persistence when they emerge from a volatility squeeze (Boxline) and are confirmed by immediate future momentum (Regime). This strategy attempts to 'perfectly' time cyclical entries by filtering out consolidation traps.

Components

• Unsupported named const comparison ternary negative history (regime) — Acts as a 'future-regime' filter; by accessing close[-1], it simulates an oracle that confirms if the next candle's close supports the current trade direction.
• Schaff Trend Cycle (STC) (direction) — Provides the primary cyclical trend direction, filtering out noise by smoothed recursive Stochastic MACD.
• Stochastic Oscillator (ta.stoch) (entry) — Identifies short-term momentum triggers to enter on local pullbacks within the STC trend.
• Stochastic Oscillator (exit) — Used to identify overextended conditions (overbought/oversold) to lock in profits before the cycle reverses.
• ATR SL Finder (risk) — Provides dynamic volatility-adjusted stop-loss levels based on historical true range.
• Boxline (Consolidation Zones) (volatility_filter) — Filters for volatility expansion; entries are only valid if price has recently broken out of a consolidation box.

Known failure conditions

• Consistent failure in low-volatility environments where Boxline breakouts result in immediate mean-reversion.
• Live execution results diverging significantly from backtests due to the close[-1] look-ahead leak.
• STC 'plateauing' during parabolic moves, causing missed re-entry opportunities.

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