TLB-ASI Confluence Trend Hunter

Family: trend_following · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: FX, Equities, Commodities · Timeframes: H1, H4, D1

Thesis

Market trends represent periods of institutional conviction that overcome local noise. By requiring a Three-Line Break (structural regime) and an ASI uptrend (cumulative pressure), we identify high-probability trend windows. The entry via TDI captures the momentum 'acceleration' phase. The exit via IAE Confluence Score assumes that trends fail fundamentally (as measured by a degradation in 10 technical layers) before the price hits a trailing stop, allowing for tighter risk management.

Components

• Three-Line Break (TLB) with MA (regime) — Establishes the structural regime; price must clear 3 previous 'blocks' to confirm a trend shift, filtering out minor oscillations.
• Accumulation Swing Index (ASI) (direction) — Acts as a confirmation of 'real' price movement versus noise by calculating the relationship between OHLC and previous sessions.
• Traders Dynamic Index (TDI) (entry) — Captures momentum breakouts within volatility envelopes; used for precise timing when RSI momentum exceeds the moving average signal line.
• IAE — Technical Confluence Score (exit) — Provides an aggregate health score; used to exit positions when multi-modal confluence (trend/vol/volume) degrades below a threshold.
• SuperTrend & Pivots (risk) — Defines the hard invalidation point (SuperTrend) and logical profit targets (Daily Pivots).

Known failure conditions

• ASI cumulative value remains flat despite price movement, indicating lack of real conviction.
• TLB 'LinesToBreak' results in entry after 70% of the average trend duration has already passed.
• Market enters a low-volatility 'squeeze' where TDI bands collapse and whipsaw the RSI Price Line.

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