TMA Fibonacci Centered Reversion

Family: mean_reversion · Regime: ranging · Complexity: high · Asset classes: Forex, Indices, Crypto · Timeframes: M15, H1

Thesis

Institutional orders cluster around Fibonacci retracements and specific liquidity pools. By using a centered triangular moving average (TMA) to identify overextended price action relative to the 'true' mean, and confirming with a short-term smoothed LWMA, we can capture high-probability reversals. The 'label' regime filter ensures we only trade when institutional activity is detectable.

Components

• Unsupported array abs label method (regime) — Serves as a regime filter by measuring 'structural complexity'. The count of labels (institutional zones) must exceed a threshold to indicate a tradeable regime.
• Supported plot Input Show Last (direction) — Establishes immediate short-term direction by comparing current price to the start of the 'Show Last' window.
• Auto Fibonacci (entry) — Provides the core entry triggers at the 0.618 (Golden Pocket) and 0.5 retracement levels.
• Bollinger Bands (exit) — Used as a dynamic take-profit target when price touches the opposing band.
• SNAP HTF_LTF Indicator (risk) — Defines the risk parameters. Stop losses are placed at identified 4H Breaker Blocks or Weekly Liquidity Pools.
• t_ma (Smoothed LWMA) (confirmation) — Acts as a high-frequency trigger confirmation. Entry is only valid if the fast LWMA is above the 6-period smoothed buffer.
• TMA CG 2024 (Centered Moving Average) (volatility_filter) — Filters for extreme volatility. Trades are only taken when price is outside the TMA inner channel, anticipating a return to the center.

Known failure conditions

• The 't_ma' 11-bar hardcoded limit causes signals to disappear on historical charts, preventing backtesting.
• TMA repainting shifts entry signals 20+ bars into the past, making real-time execution impossible.
• Market regimes with low label density (low institutional participation) keep the strategy permanently sidelined.

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