Total Power Box Breakout Pullback
Family: pullback · Regime: trending · Complexity: medium · Asset classes: FX, Equities, Crypto · Timeframes: H1, H4
Thesis
Market trends persist due to institutional momentum, but exhibit mean-reversion pullbacks. By using the Total Power indicator to confirm statistical trend dominance and Bears Power to isolate temporary selling pressure in an uptrend, we can enter on a Stochastic recovery with a stop-loss anchored to recent price-action structure (Boxline). The edge relies on the assumption that structural range floors (Boxline) hold during established statistical trends.
Components
- Total Power Indicator (regime) — Acts as the primary trend filter to ensure entries occur when one side (bulls or bears) has statistically dominated the recent lookback period.
- Bears Power (direction) — Used to detect short-term price pullbacks within the established trend by measuring the distance between lows and the EMA.
- Stochastic Oscillator (entry) — Provides the execution trigger via oversold/overbought momentum crosses once the trend and pullback criteria are met.
- Relative Strength Index (Standard) (exit) — Signals momentum exhaustion for exiting positions before the box-range structure shifts against the trade.
- Boxline (Dynamic Range Breakout) (risk) — Defines the structural 'floor' or 'ceiling' of the current consolidation for stop-loss placement and risk-of-ruin management.
- ATR SL Finder (volatility_filter) — Acts as a secondary volatility filter to prevent entering trades when ATR-derived ranges are too narrow to cover transaction costs.
Known failure conditions
- Prolonged 'flat' Boxline states where the market creates micro-ranges smaller than the spread.
- Total Power Indicator staying above 80 for extended periods, indicating a parabolic move prone to mean reversion.
- Successive stop-outs during a 'stair-stepping' market that doesn't reach RSI exit targets.
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