Trepidity Range Momentum Scalpel

Family: trend_following · Regime: trending · Complexity: medium · Asset classes: Equities, Index Futures · Timeframes: M5, M15

Thesis

Market participants establish the day's dominant trend within the first 30 minutes (Opening Range). A breakout of this range, confirmed by HHV/LLV trend indicators (Sherif Hilo) and increasing EMA momentum (MACD), identifies sessions where institutional flow is lopsided, allowing for captures of volatility expansion toward session-fixed liquidity zones (Pivot Points).

Components

• Trepidity Opening Range with Extensions (regime) — Establishes the daily volatility context; only trades if price is within extension zones, avoiding late-session drift.
• Sherif Hilo (direction) — Filters for high-timeframe trend direction based on price action extremes (HHV/LLV).
• MACD (entry) — Triggers entry on momentum shifts (histogram rising/falling) aligned with the trend.
• Pivot Points (Classic) (exit) — Provides static session-based profit targets independent of recent price action.
• TopTrend (BBands Stop) (risk) — Dynamic trailing stop-loss that adjusts based on Bollinger-derived volatility.
• Keltner Channels (volatility_filter) — Ensures enough volatility exists to move price; prevents entries during low-liquidity 'squeezes'.

Known failure conditions

• Trendless chop results in consecutive Sherif Hilo flips within the Opening Range.
• Price stays pinned between the OR Mid and R1/S1 levels for >75% of the session.
• MACD histogram signal occurs outside of the Trepidity extension windows.

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