Triple ADX Horizontal Breakout with RAE Scaling

Family: trend_following · Regime: trending · Complexity: medium · Asset classes: Equities, Forex, Crypto · Timeframes: H1, H4, D1

Thesis

Sustained market trends are characterized by multi-period ADX alignment; by entering on structural price breakouts (Roshaneforde) during these high-momentum phases and scaling risk by the 'predictability' of price action (RAE), one can capture the meat of a trend while minimizing exposure during 'erratic' high-noise periods.

Components

• Easy Trend Visualizer (ETV) (regime) — Acts as the primary volatility and trend filter; requires alignment of three ADX periods to ensure momentum is consistent across short-to-medium lookbacks.
• HiLo Activator (Pandini Version) (direction) — Provides a binary directional bias (Above/Below MA of Highs/Lows) to filter out counter-trend signals.
• Roshaneforde Pivot Levels (entry) — Uses candle-pattern reversals to identify structural 'break-lines'; entries occur on the breach of these levels within the established trend.
• Commodity Channel Index (Rosasurfer Framework) (exit) — Used as a momentum-exhaustion exit; closes trades when the relative price position vs its mean mean-reverts or momentum fades.
• Relative Absolute Error (RAE) (risk) — Quantifies price noise relative to a mean; used to decrease position size or widen stops when the 'error' (volatility/uncertainty) is high.

Known failure conditions

• ADX alignment (ETV) occurs too late in a trend, leading to 'buying the top' or 'selling the bottom'.
• Price remains in a permanent high-RAE state, effectively disabling entries through extreme position sizing reduction.
• The hardcoded 35/30 ADX levels are never reached in low-volatility regimes (e.g., Summer doldrums).

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