Triple ADX Seasonal Trend-Breaker

Family: trend_following · Regime: trending · Complexity: medium · Asset classes: FX, Equities, Indices · Timeframes: H4, D1

Thesis

Market trends are most robust during the 'mid-week' window (Tue-Fri) when institutional participation is highest. By requiring a triple-ADX confirmation (short, medium, and long-term momentum alignment) while price is above a baseline SMA, we enter high-probability volatility expansions. The edge relies on the synchronization of different market participants (reflected in the triple ADX) during high-liquidity sessions.

Components

• Daily Seasonality (regime) — Filters for mid-week liquidity windows when institutional trend persistence is statistically higher than Monday reversals or Sunday gaps.
• Simple Moving Average (SMA) (direction) — Provides the primary trend filter to ensure trades are only taken in the direction of the intermediate-term bias.
• Easy Trend Visualizer (ETV) (entry) — Uses triple-ADX momentum alignment to confirm trend strength before entry and provides horizontal S/R levels for entry triggers.
• Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (exit) — Used for trailing exits; the Kijun-sen and Kumo Cloud represent dynamic support/resistance that accounts for volatility.
• Equity Line Projection (risk) — Manages risk by calculating required lot sizes so that the projected equity at the stop-loss level matches the predefined risk-per-trade.

Known failure conditions

• ADX alignment occurs but price remains trapped in a multi-week range.
• Seasonal patterns shift due to major central bank calendar changes (e.g., FOMC shifting impact to different days).
• High-volatility news events causing price to skip the Ichimoku exit levels (slippage).

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