USDX Regime-Aware TLB Hybrid

Family: hybrid · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: Forex (USD Majors: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD) · Timeframes: H1, H4

Thesis

Market participants react to the US Dollar as a singular liquidity source; by identifying the USDX regime and filtering 'noise' through TLB and volume confirmation, we can capture high-probability momentum entries while using macro-stress indicators to avoid systemic volatility traps.

Components

USDX (US Dollar Index) Tracker (regime) — Establishes the primary currency regime; identifies if the US Dollar is in a structural uptrend or downtrend relative to the global basket.
Arrows Base Template (direction) — Serves as the signal dispatcher that aggregates the regime, filter, and confirmation logic into a singular execution trigger.
Stochastic Oscillator (entry) — Provides the specific timing for entry by identifying local momentum exhaustion within the broader regime.
Pivot Points (Classic) (exit) — Provides objective, non-repainting horizontal levels for profit taking and stop-loss placement based on session structure.
Macro Risk Dashboard v8.2 (risk) — Controls the exposure size and global 'kill-switch' based on cross-market stress and volatility Z-scores.
On-Balance Volume (OBV) (confirmation) — Confirms that the price move is supported by cumulative volume flow, reducing the probability of low-liquidity traps.
Three-Line Break (TLB) with MA (volatility_filter) — Filters out minor price noise and ensures the entry is aligned with a significant structural trend reversal.

Known failure conditions

Macro Risk Composite score exceeds 80 (systemic stress invalidates technical setups).
USDX enters a tight sideways range where MA13 and MA17 converge within 0.05% of each other.
Constituent pairs of USDX (e.g., USDSEK) experience liquidity gaps or feed halts.

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