USDX-SNAP Macro Confluence System

Family: trend_following · Regime: trending · Complexity: medium · Asset classes: Forex (Major USD Pairs), Gold (XAUUSD) · Timeframes: H1, H4

Thesis

Individual currency pair movements are often noise unless confirmed by the aggregate strength or weakness of the US Dollar basket (USDX). By entering trades only when local momentum (UT Bot) aligns with the USDX trend and placing stops at institutional liquidity zones (SNAP), we capture high-probability expansion phases while protecting capital at structural break points.

Components

• Local non-scalar UDT typed-na history diagnostic (regime) — Acts as a 'System Integrity Regime Filter'. If the diagnostic detects 'na' values in the UDT structure (Output=1), the environment is considered unstable or data is missing, and trading is halted.
• USDX (US Dollar Index) Tracker (direction) — Determines the global macro-trend. If the fast MA is above the slow MA, we assume a 'Strong Dollar' bias; otherwise, a 'Weak Dollar' bias.
• UT Bot Alerts (MQL5) (entry) — Triggers entries based on local momentum crossovers against an ATR-calculated trailing stop.
• Average True Range (NNFX Version) (exit) — Used to set the volatility-adjusted take-profit target, ensuring exits are proportional to recent market range.
• SNAP HTF_LTF Indicator (risk) — Provides hard-stop levels based on High-Timeframe (HTF) institutional liquidity pools and supply/demand zones.

Known failure conditions

• USDX remains in a tight range while constituent pairs diverge due to local idiosyncratic news (e.g., ECB rate hikes during US neutrality).
• UT Bot produces 'sawtooth' signals in a low-volatility environment where price oscillates around the ATR stop.
• SNAP Liquidity levels are breached by 'slippage' during high-impact news, rendering the technical stop-loss invalid.

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