Volatility-Gated Triple Momentum Expansion

Family: trend_following · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: Forex, Equities, Crypto · Timeframes: 1H, 4H, 1D

Thesis

Market trends are most tradeable during periods of sustained volatility expansion away from a mean (Grid Base), provided that short-term price velocity (TEMA), medium-term momentum (MACD), and ROC (Momentum Osc) are in alignment. The edge exists because price inertia often continues until directional strength (ADX) reaches an exhaustion threshold.

Components

Grid Bot [Grid range plugin] Two Moving Avarages [psyll] (regime) — Defines the volatility regime; identifies 'Value' (Base) vs 'Extreme' (Grid High/Low) to ensure entries occur within expanding volatility corridors.
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) (direction) — Determines the prevailing momentum bias to filter out counter-trend signals against the macro move.
Triple Exponential Moving Average (EMA) (entry) — The hierarchical alignment of three EMAs provides the technical trigger for entry when short-term trend aligns with medium-term momentum.
ADX / Connectable [Azullian] (exit) — Identifies trend exhaustion or strength decay to trigger exits before a full reversal occurs.
Parabolic SAR (risk) — Provides a non-subjective trailing stop-loss that accelerates as the trend matures, protecting capital from sudden shifts.
Momentum Oscillator (confirmation) — Confirms the acceleration of price change to ensure entry is not during a period of slowing momentum (stalling).

Known failure conditions

Price consistently closes outside the Grid High/Low boundaries without a sustained trend, indicating a range expansion failure.
Momentum Oscillator fails to exceed the 100 level during TEMA crossovers for more than 5 consecutive signals.
High slippage environments where the PSAR trailing stop is gapped.

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