Float-Momentum Mean Error Divergence (FMMED)

Family: hybrid · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: Equities, Forex, Crypto · Timeframes: H1, D1

Thesis

Market trends are most sustainable when price momentum (Connect MACD) is backed by a statistical bias (Mean Error) and has not yet reached a historical 'volume turnover' limit (Float Indicator). By entering on volatility-adjusted price crosses (Bollinger Bands) and exiting via Heiken Ashi trailing stops, we exploit the behavioral tendency of trends to exhaust only after a full rotation of the circulating supply (float).

Components

• Connect MACD (Azullian) (regime) — Establishes the primary trend regime using weight-indexed signal processing to ensure momentum is positive or negative.
• Unsupported table.new modes Test Indicator (direction) — Provides the core price-action structure (y = close) to ensure current price is trending in alignment with the regime.
• Bollinger Bands (Standard) (entry) — Acts as a volatility-based trigger; entries occur when price breaks the median, signaling a return to momentum after a squeeze.
• Chandelier Exit (Heiken Ashi) (exit) — Provides a dynamic, volatility-adjusted trailing stop based on Heiken Ashi calculations to capture trend extensions.
• Volatility Ratio (VR) (risk) — Determines position size and stop-loss distance by comparing current True Range to the average; scales down during abnormal spikes.
• Mean Error (ME) (confirmation) — Confirms entries by ensuring the directional bias of the error (Actual - Predicted) supports the trend direction (avoiding mean-reversion traps).
• Float Indicator (volatility_filter) — Filters out entries where the cumulative volume turnover of the current swing is near exhaustion (>80% of TotalFloat).

Known failure conditions

• Strategy fails in low-liquidity environments where volume turnover (Float Indicator) does not correlate with price discovery.
• High failure rate if Mean Error remains near zero during high-volatility breakouts.
• Aggressive Chandelier Exit parameters (0.75 Mult) lead to excessive whipsaws in ranging markets.

Explore the full interactive blueprint with parameter ranges and evidence on WOBR StrategyVerse, or generate this strategy as an MT4/MT5 Expert Advisor with QuantMogul AI Engine (free download).