MAPE-Adaptive Ichimoku Momentum

Family: trend_following · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: FX, Indices, Equities · Timeframes: H1, H4

Thesis

Market trends are sustainable when backed by volume accumulation (CMF) and momentum (HA-Stochastic), but the 'predictability' of the trend varies. By using MAPE to quantify how much price deviates from a moving average model, we can scale down risk when the market becomes erratic and scale up when it is 'behaving' predictably within the Ichimoku structure.

Components

• Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (regime) — Defines the trend context via the Kumo (Cloud) and momentum direction via the Tenkan/Kijun cross. Sets the structural bias.
• Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (direction)
• OTLIB Stochastic Oscillator (Heikin-Ashi based) (entry) — Uses smoothed HA data to identify momentum cycles within the larger trend; serves as the primary timing trigger.
• MultiKAMA (TyphooN) (exit) — Provides an adaptive exit target that tightens during high efficiency and widens during noise, protecting profits.
• Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) (risk) — Quantifies the deviation from the mean trend; used to scale risk based on the predictability of current price action.
• Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) (confirmation) — Confirms that price movement is supported by volume/liquidity accumulation rather than thin-market noise.
• Jurik Adaptive Envelope Bands (volatility_filter) — Ensures trade execution only occurs when volatility-adjusted expansion is present, avoiding low-liquidity churn.

Known failure conditions

• Price remains trapped within the Kumo for extended periods, causing whip-saw signals.
• MAPE spikes above historical 90th percentile, indicating total breakdown of predictive modeling.
• Stochastic repaint issues lead to entries that disappear on bar close.

Explore the full interactive blueprint with parameter ranges and evidence on WOBR StrategyVerse, or generate this strategy as an MT4/MT5 Expert Advisor with QuantMogul AI Engine (free download).